House prices in the UK are projected to decline by 2% in 2026, driven by rising mortgage costs that are expected to dampen buyer demand. This revised forecast from Savills highlights a significant shift from their earlier prediction of a 2% growth, reflecting the growing pressure on household finances due to higher borrowing costs and ongoing inflationary pressures.
TL;DR: Average UK house prices are set to fall by 2% in 2026 due to rising mortgage rates; this impacts buyers and investors amid tightening household budgets.
Why Are House Prices Expected to Fall?
The anticipated decline in house prices is largely attributed to escalating mortgage rates, which have risen since late February. Savills notes that these higher borrowing costs are likely to suppress demand throughout 2026. The economic environment has also been influenced by external factors, such as rising tensions in Iran, which have contributed to inflation and subsequently higher mortgage rates.
What Are the Long-Term Projections for House Prices?
Despite the short-term forecast indicating a decline, Savills maintains a positive outlook for the longer term, projecting an 18.5% increase in house prices by 2030. This growth forecast is slightly reduced from their previous estimate of 22.2% over five years. The firm believes that improving economic conditions and easing affordability pressures will support a gradual recovery in the housing market.
What This Means for Borrowers and Investors
For borrowers, the current rise in mortgage rates and the expected 2% drop in house prices may lead to a more cautious approach to home buying. Stricter lending rules and the prevalence of fixed-rate mortgages are likely to mitigate the risk of widespread forced sales, even as affordability improves compared to 2022. Investors should be aware that while the market may face short-term challenges, opportunities could arise in the North of England, Scotland, and Wales, where affordability levels are more favorable.
How Will Mortgage Rates Change?
Looking ahead, Savills forecasts that average mortgage rates will decline from 4.78% at the end of 2026 to 3.5% by 2030. This decline is expected to coincide with a reduction in the Bank of England’s base rate from 3.75% to 2.5% over the same period. Such changes could enhance borrowing conditions and stimulate demand in the housing market, particularly as inflation is projected to return towards the Bank’s target of 2% from 2027 onwards.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors are contributing to the decline in house prices?
The decline in house prices is primarily due to rising mortgage rates and inflation, which are expected to dampen buyer demand and pressure household finances.
When can we expect house prices to start rising again?
House prices are projected to begin recovering in 2027, with growth expected to resume at rates of 2.5% in 2027, followed by 5% in 2028 and 6% annually in 2029 and 2030.