Construction Output Decline Continues
As of 16th April 2026, UK construction output has fallen for the fifth consecutive quarter, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The ONS reported a 2% drop in total construction output in the three months to February 2026, continuing the trend from the previous quarter, which also saw a 2% fall. The decline was largely attributed to a reduction in new work, which fell by 3.4% over the period. Six out of nine construction segments witnessed a drop in output, with private new housing taking the biggest hit, falling by 6.5%. However, there was a small recovery in February, with construction output increasing by 1% after a 0.5% rise in January and a 1.3% drop in December. This rise was driven by a 1% increase in new work and a 0.9% rise in repair and maintenance.
Impact on First-Time Buyers
For first-time buyers, this decline in construction output could potentially lead to a decrease in the availability of new homes. Let’s consider a first-time buyer with a £250,000 repayment mortgage at 75% LTV. With the current base rate of 3.75%, their monthly payments would be approximately £1,167. If the supply of new homes continues to decrease, it could lead to an increase in property prices. Assuming a 2% increase in property prices, the same property would now cost £255,000. This would increase the monthly payments to approximately £1,191, an additional £24 per month or £288 per year.
Effects on the Remortgage Market
For those looking to remortgage, the falling construction output could have a different impact. A homeowner with a £200,000 repayment mortgage at 75% LTV, currently paying around £933 per month, may find that the value of their property has increased due to the reduced supply of new homes. If their property value increases by 2%, their equity would also increase, potentially allowing them to secure a lower LTV ratio and a better interest rate when remortgaging. For example, if they could reduce their LTV to 70%, their monthly payments could decrease to around £891, saving them £42 per month or £504 per year.
Overall Market Context
The current trend of falling construction output comes at a time when the UK base rate stands at 3.75%. This is higher than the rate six months ago, which was 3.5%. The reduction in new work and the subsequent potential increase in property prices could put additional pressure on the Bank of England to raise the base rate further to control inflation. This could lead to higher mortgage rates for both first-time buyers and those looking to remortgage. However, the small recovery in construction output in February, driven by increases in new work and repair and maintenance, could signal a potential turnaround in the coming months.